Five shares recommended by the new energy parity r

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Electrical equipment: new energy parity relay policy recommends 5 shares

key investment points automobile:

rush to install at the end of the year, and the installed capacity of power lithium battery in 2018 was 56.89gwh, exceeding expectations. According to battery China, the cumulative installed capacity of power batteries in December 2018 was 13.36gwh, a month on month increase of +50%, and the cumulative installed capacity throughout the year was 56.89gwh

battery manufacturers show a pattern of one super and many strong companies, with CR3 accounting for about 67%. Among them, the top five installed capacity are:

catlbyd GuoXuan Tianjin Lishen Funeng, and the first three have installed capacity of 23.4311.433.07gwh, accounting for 41.19%20%5.38% respectively. The overlord of catl is stable, and Funeng shows the true colors of a dark horse. We expect that we will use this platform to reach 75gwh in 2019. Looking forward to the demand for new energy vehicles in 2019, the supply side: first-class vehicle enterprises at home and abroad have launched models with higher product power to stimulate demand; Demand side: the 2B market will be mainly driven by operational demand (the electrification policy of car Hailing (relevant requirements have been introduced in Shenzhen, Foshan, Huizhou, Dalian, Kunming and other cities in Guangdong), the pure electrification of taxis, and the car Hailing platform prohibited by the host factory from being used to check the layout of human bodies or animals), and the 2C market will be driven by personal consumption (purchase restriction and non cities)

2018q4 Tesla's production capacity reached a new high. According to Tesla 1.2 in the whole year of 2018, Tesla sold 245000 (145800 models 3,99400 modelsx). Among them, the output of 2018q4: 86555 vehicles (model3:61394; modelsx total 25161 vehicles), delivery of 90700 vehicles (model3:63150; models, 13500, modelx14050), Tesla Model3 production capacity continued to improve, quarter on quarter +15%. The company plans to reduce the price of Model3 products by 2000 dollars. At the same time, delivery will begin in Europe and China in February this year, and it is expected to be in large quantities this year

waiting for the subsidy policy to be implemented, or it will be released in January. The market generally expects that the subsidy for new energy vehicles will decline by 30%-40%. The general direction of the policy is "supporting the excellent and the strong + raising the technical threshold". In principle, the decline rate of the subsidy is determined by considering the sales volume of 19 years on the premise of the steady growth of the total subsidy (because the total amount of the subsidy is different under different subsidy coefficients, we estimate that the total amount of the subsidy in 2018 is in the range of 100 million). The pressure of subsidy decline will be borne by vehicle manufacturers and related industries in the industrial chain. We expect that the transmission to the battery link will be lower than the decline of subsidy. It is expected that the battery end price will fall by 10% - 20% in 2019 (neutral expectation: 15%). The structural differentiation of the sector continued to play out, presenting a situation of weakening upstream profits and constant strength of lithium battery leaders. The midstream is expected to usher in a profit inflection point next year, supported by the lower price of raw materials in the upstream and the large-scale effect

global electrification accelerates. Throughout the whole industrial chain of new energy vehicles, the leading concentration of "vehicle lithium battery materials" continues, and the leading market share is significantly increasing. With the launch of new vehicles by world-class vehicle enterprises, the electrification will be accelerated in the face of changes in national financial policies, environmental protection pressure, market pressure and other external severe situations. At present, overseas lithium battery leaders (Panasonic lg Samsung sdisk, etc.) have accelerated the process of localization in China, domestic production capacity such as catl (,) Funeng technology has continued to expand, and the new production capacity has concentrated on high-quality lithium battery leaders. According to our statistics, by 2020, the capacity of overseas lithium battery leaders will be increased by 150gwh. In the process of localization of vehicle manufacturers and overseas lithium battery leaders, China's lithium power batteries and their materials are globally competitive and benefit significantly

investment suggestions: we are optimistic about the long-term development of new energy vehicles, and the investment logic will evolve from "price, quantity and quality"

pay attention to top-notch cars with strong profitability and the industry chain leaders of global lithium battery giants, wait for the implementation of policies in the short term, and focus on high-quality leaders: (,), putailai, Ningde times, (,), leading intelligence; Long term focus: Ningde times, putailai, xinzhoubang, (,), Enjie shares, dangsheng technology, Xingyuan material, leading intelligence, Shanshan, Sanhua intelligent control, (,), (,), (,)

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